War games conducted by top level American Officials in 1999 revealed that, even with as many as 400,000 troops involved, American intervention in Iraq stood a good chance of degenerating into anarchy and violence.
According to an Associated Press article by John Heilprin which was posted at 4:48 AM Eastern Time, November 5th, and which seems to have fallen"below the fold" as of 8:43 AM Eastern Time, November 5th, the George Washington University requested, and received, a declassified report describing the results of the games.
(It's a good thing I'm old enough to have to go pee in the middle of the night, or I would have missed it.)
The AP article provides a link to the George Washington University's "National Security Archives" page...but when R&R tried to access it, we were served an error message from the University. Not being conspiracy theorists, we'll try again later. The URL is:
The AP article goes on to offer excepts from the report:
- "A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."
- "Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic- especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."
- "Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."
- "The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development."
- "Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."
Mr. Hailprin goes on to point out that many of these predictions are similar to what actually transpired...go figure!